NEW DELHI: In a development that could recalibrate India’s foreign policy calculus, former US President Donald Trump has openly expressed concerns over New Delhi’s longstanding strategic alignment with Moscow, casting a shadow over one of the most consequential partnerships of the 21st century. The remarks, made during a private gathering but widely reported, underscore the persistent fragility of global alliances as geopolitical fault lines deepen.
Trump’s unease centres on India’s continued defence procurement from Russia and its purchase of discounted Russian crude oil—moves that have provided a financial lifeline to Moscow following its invasion of Ukraine. From Washington’s perspective, these actions complicate Western efforts to isolate Russia economically and militarily. For India, however, they are dictated by hard-nosed strategic necessity: over 60% of the Indian military’s hardware is of Russian origin, and securing affordable energy is paramount for a nation of 1.4 billion people.
This is not merely a bilateral irritant; it is a symptom of a larger global realignment. The unipolar moment of American dominance is giving way to a fragmented, multipolar world where middle powers like India are leveraging relationships for maximum benefit. New Delhi’s participation in groupings like the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, alongside its deepening ties with the West through the Quad and I2U2, exemplifies this complex balancing act. The core question, which Trump’s comments bring to the fore, is how long this delicate dance can continue before India faces pressure to choose sides.
The timing is particularly sensitive. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump share a history of public bonhomie, but the potential of a second Trump administration introduces significant uncertainty. His first term was marked by a transactional approach to foreign policy, where alliances were frequently questioned and traditional diplomatic norms were upended. A return to such a posture could see economic and diplomatic tools used more aggressively to compel Indian compliance with US objectives regarding Russia.
Indian officials, speaking on background, reiterate the country’s consistent position: its foreign policy decisions are made solely in its national interest. The dependency on Russian spares for its Sukhoi fighter jets, T-90 tanks, and S-400 missile systems is not a preference but a legacy reality. Any rapid decoupling would create massive operational gaps in its defence preparedness, a risk no Indian government can take lightly. Similarly, the import of Russian oil, which surged to become over a third of India’s total crude imports post-2022, has been a crucial buffer against global inflation and energy shocks.
The way forward is fraught with challenge. India has accelerated efforts to diversify its defence suppliers, signing major deals with the US, France, and Israel. The US-India Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) is a promising avenue for deeper cooperation. However, these are long-term projects. The immediate future will require intense diplomatic engagement to prevent divergences over Russia from unravelling the substantial gains made in the US-India relationship over the past two decades. The ball is now in the courts of both capitals to navigate this latest geopolitical tightrope.
